Can Ohio become a swing state again?

For decades, the state of Ohio was considered the nation's most important swing state. Ohio's electorate had proven to be consistently predictive: Ohio voters picked the winning presidential candidate, Republican or Democrat, in every election from 1964 to 2016. 

Kevin Spiker, associate professor of political science, cited a time-worn expression: “where Ohio goes, so goes the nation.”

This streak ended in 2020 when Donald Trump won the state over Joe Biden, yet ended up losing the election. Ohio, which had been a reliable swing state, voted with the Republican candidate in the past three presidential elections. 

Swing status: stalled

In the state’s highest executive position, Ohio has maintained a Republican governor for the past 16 years. Many young voters in Ohio don’t remember a time when one party didn’t run the state. Ohioans and election experts are left wondering: why is Ohio no longer a swing state?

By looking at election result data, Spiker says he can identify part of the reason.

“The transformation can, in part, be traced to a shift in party identification and voting, primarily in counties of the Ohio River Valley,” he says.

Spiker is referring to the western edge of the state including counties like Mahoning, Belmont, Monroe and Jefferson. Now, these would be considered Republican strongholds, but the Democrats were historically considered easy favorites there. 

The steel and coal industries, Spiker says, originally connected many of these voters with the Democrats because of their pro-union and labor platforms. 

We see a different story today. Spiker says the data suggests that voters began to feel that the Democratic party wasn’t supporting pro-labor ideals anymore, creating prime conditions for Republicans to win over Ohio’s working class.

Fracking was also a major area of contention, Spiker says, in counties around the valley. Democrats traditionally have supported more environmentally-friendly initiatives, which can hurt industries that many people rely on to make their living. 

Coal mining is a historically significant way of life in the western counties of Ohio as well, which in combination with Democratic environmental regulations and Republican promises to improve this sector, caused a voter realignment.

“Republicans as a party have been able to pick off and convert these counties along the border to sizable majorities,” Spiker says. “I think that in part explains why Republicans have been successful.”

Another notable aspect, according to Spiker, is that Ohio voted for the same candidate in the past three elections. Spiker says President Trump’s popularity in Ohio is unique and historically rare. 

“His margin of victory in the state of Ohio the last several times has been equal to, if not greater than the biggest landslides in American political history,” Spiker said. 

Midterm trends

As we near the midterms, Spiker says looking at trends is important. Often the enthusiasm for the party that’s not in power carries a high number of voters to the polls, leading the president’s party to lose some political ground. 

“Dating back to 1938, in the president’s party in midterm congressional elections in the House of Representatives, 20 of the 22 times they’ve lost [seats],” Spiker says. 

He theorized that this could be because the president is not on the ballot, which contributes to their party not performing the same as it did two years before. 

In the midterm election scheduled for November 3, a Senate seat and the governor's mansion are up for grabs, and polls show a close contest. If both Democratic candidates prevail, could it mean Ohio’s return to swing state status even outside a presidential election year?

"I would hesitate to say that...it would mean a large partisan shift or movement," Spiker cautions.

Beyond the midterms, Spiker said the biggest question for elections in Ohio is this: What will happen when President Trump is no longer on the ballot? Will the turnout be as large for the Republican party? 

The 2026 midterm election will provide valuable insight into whether Ohio can regain its swing state status in the near future, or whether one party will continue to lead in the polls. This election’s results won’t tell us everything, but they could be an indicator of what’s in store for Ohio.