On the Islamic Parties
Elizabeth Fuller Collins
Department of Classics and World Religions
Ohio University
There are seven “Islamic” political parties competing in the forthcoming election, along with PAN, the party of Amin Rais, who expects to get strong support from members of Muhammadiyah. (See the attachment “Islamic Parties in the 2004 Election,” for a brief description of these parties.) There is little likelihood that these parties could form a “Muslim coalition” to oust Megawati, as they did in 2000, although a Megawati/Akbar Tanjung ticket in the presidential round might lead they to forge some kind of alliance.
With 50 percent of the electorate claiming to be undecided in national polls, the Islamic parties, like everyone else, are waiting to see how the voting on April 6th turns out. Much depends on the strength PDI-P and the Islamic parties show, which will help to determine whom Megawati courts as her running mate. PPP, PKB and PAN are likely to be numbers 4, 5, and 6 in the election. One thing to look for is how these parties fare in comparison to 1999.
PBB, the Crescent Star Party led by Yusril Mahendra, which is the most stridently “Islamic” party judged by its support for implementation of shariah, will probably not do as well as it did in 1999. However, PKS, the Justice and Welfare Party (or Prosperous Justice Party), which also supports and Islamic state (but not implementation of shariah) is expected to do much better than the 1.4 percent of the vote it received last time.
PKS has won middle class support for its strong stand against corruption. (On PKS, please see the attachment “Partai Keadilan Sejahtera.”)
Like PDI-P and Golkar, PPP and PKB are split. Zainuddin MZ led some of the younger generation of PPP supporters into a breakaway party, the Partai Bintang Reformasi (PBR). PKB, the party of former president Aburrahman Wahid, is split between those loyal to Gus Dur and those who are worried about the future of the party. One interesting question is how these splits will affect the election.
The big question is: Who will Megawati choose as her running mate in the presidential round in July. Much will depend on what happens in April but also on what happens in the presidential bedroom. Taufiq Kiemas appears to be pushing for Akbar Tanjung and an alliance with Golkar that would bring victory in the first round. Megawati, PDI-P leaders, and some Golkar leaders are not happy about this possibility.
The possibility that Megawati would ask Jusuf Kalla to be her running mate, because he could bring support from Golkar and from Muslim voters, appears to have disappeared with the Supreme Court decision freeing Akbar Tanjung to be the Golkar candidate for president.
There is a pressure for Megawati to choose a running mate from the Islamic parties to neutralize the Nationalist/Muslim divide between the parties. However, she is not likely to choose her long time critic Amien Rais. Hasyim Muzadi from NU has been approached, but Gus Dur strongly opposes this, so the choice of Hasyim Muzadi would only split NU, not bring its supporters on board. That leaves Megawati with the tried and true but unexciting and unthreatening Hamzah Haz.