Ohio University

National Intelligence Council releases ‘Global Trends 2030’: prominent roles predicted for demographic and the environmental trends

From New Security Beat (Dr. Geoff Dabelko quoted)

Schuyler Null & Kate Diamond December 11, 2012

Excerpt: “We are at a critical juncture in human history, which could lead to widely contrasting futures,” writes the chairman of the National Intelligence Council (NIC) Christopher Kojm in the council’s latest forward-looking quadrennial report, Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds, released yesterday.

This year, principal author Mathew Burrows and his colleagues focus on a series of plausible global scenarios for the next 20 years and the trends or disruptions that may influence which play out. Among the most important factors in these projections are demography and the environment.

According to the NIC, by 2030, no country is likely to be a globally hegemonic power and four “megatrends” will have shaped international relations: accelerated individual empowerment; diffused power among and within countries; novel and diverging demographic patterns; and growing natural resource demand (food, water, and energy).

Many of today’s most fragile states – including Afghanistan, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Somalia – are likely to remain so for the next 15 to 20 years, with demographic and environmental challenges playing a prominent role. Meanwhile rising powers will likely continue their ascent, and many traditional powers will face relative decline.

To read the full article, click here.