Study Examines Physician Overconfidence in
Making Diagnoses
Physicians
hired as expert witnesses in medical
malpractice lawsuits have an advantage
over the physician on trial: When asked
how they would have diagnosed a patient's
symptoms, they already know the
answer.
Responding
with confidence that they would have come
to the correct medical conclusion in the
case before the jury, these witnesses
offer convincing testimony for the
prosecution. But is it accurate
testimony?
"The
jury and the expert witnesses are looking
back on an event and they know how it
turned out. It biases their perception of
what should have been done," says Hal
Arkes, a professor of psychology at Ohio
University who does research on medical
decision making and physician
overconfidence.
This
phenomena, called hindsight bias, can
predispose a jury in a medical malpractice
suit to a guilty verdict, Arkes says. But
perhaps even more troubling, he adds, is
the consequences it poses for the
education of physicians and medical
students.
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